Theme Park Wait Time Predictions

AI-powered predictions using M/M/c queueing theory, school schedules from 34 districts, and real-time park data. Plan the perfect visit.

How Our Predictions Work

Queueing Theory

M/M/c models compute expected wait times from arrival rates, service rates, and ride vehicle counts — the same math used in operations research.

School Calendar Analysis

We track 34 school districts across 6 states, weighted by enrollment and distance from Anaheim. School breaks are the #1 crowd predictor.

10 Engineered Features

From parade rebound effects to Lightning Lane saturation and refurbishment redistribution — our model captures what pure math misses.

The Math Behind the Magic

Each ride is modeled as an M/M/c queue — a system with Poisson arrivals (rate λ), exponential service times (rate μ per server), and c parallel servers (ride vehicles).

// Utilization
ρ = λ / (c × μ)
// Expected queue length (Erlang-C)
Lq = P0 × (cρ)c × ρ / (c! × (1-ρ)2)
// Expected wait time
Wq = Lq / λ

The pure queueing theory prediction is then corrected by a residual model trained on 10 engineered features — school schedules, event timing, Lightning Lane saturation, and more.